Investment Memo
Formal investment memos plus older company and thesis memos. Memos are a format; Software, Industrials, Chips and TSLA are the subject buckets.
Vertiv is one of the cleanest public-market ways to underwrite AI data-center power, thermal management, and mission-critical infrastructure. Fundamentals are exceptional, but at roughly 50x FY2026 guided adjusted EPS midpoint, 9.0x sales, and 56x adjusted FCF, the base-case fair value is only around $340/share versus the recent $315.71 quote.
A critical data-center memo on Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness 13F sequence and the post-quarter Nebius 13G: why the trade moved from chips to power, delivered clusters, goodput and AI-cloud unit economics. Compares CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN across live clusters, owned power, financing risk, customer quality and what is already priced in.
A deep dive on Meta's valuation, business structure and AI plays after Q1 2026: Family of Apps remains an elite ad cash cow, Reality Labs is still a loss-making option, and the $125-145B 2026 capex guide is the swing factor. Includes scenario valuation, AI revenue paths, infrastructure read-throughs and public references from Jefferies, Evercore, JPMorgan and Damodaran.
60–80% of tech equity value sits in terminal value, the assumption that moats compound. AI breaks that assumption for software first. 2025 inning: long silicon (AVGO, SKH), short SaaS (Duolingo −67%, Adobe −25%). What survives, what dies, and what it means for growth equity, private credit, and $300–500B/yr AI capex.
Samsung is printing ₩57T/quarter in memory OP (8x YoY). Three structural forces extend the DRAM cycle: AI inference DDR5 demand, NVIDIA SOCAMM/LPDDR5X pull (13x jump GB200→VR300), and HBM4 redemption after passing NVIDIA qual. At 2.2x annualized OP, the Korea discount is extreme.
XLI is a concentrated bet on three multi-year spending cycles: defense rearmament post-Hormuz, $2T+ infrastructure legislation entering peak disbursement, and AI-driven electrification. At 27x forward P/E it's not cheap, but the structural tailwinds justify scaling in via cash-secured puts.
Tesla is priced as a declining EV company. The market ignores autonomy (robotaxi live in Austin, Cybercab production started), robotics (Optimus Gen 3 summer 2026), and the SpaceX $1.75T IPO catalyst that could force a $3T+ merger. Sum-of-parts: $285B bear to $1.5T+ bull.
Palantir's Ontology creates infinite switching costs. AIP Bootcamps convert at 75% in 5 days. Maven is now a Program of Record. But at 60-80x revenue, you're paying for perfection. Best played as a put seller.
NVIDIA's $20B Groq buy marks the training-to-inference pivot. 92% AI training share, 18-year CUDA moat. $255B inference market by 2030.
Google trades 29% below peers. They invented transformers. TPUs save $3B/yr. GCP growing 44% CAGR. Cash-secured puts yield 40% annualized.
ASML owns 100% of EUV lithography. Every advanced chip runs through their machines. AI supercycle drives demand. High-NA EUV is next.
AI's real bottleneck isn't compute. It's memory. Three companies control all HBM supply. $4B market growing to $91B by 2030 at 56% CAGR. 118% utilization. Seller's market. MU is the play.
GPUs aren't the bottleneck. Power is. ERCOT has 78 GW requested, 1.1 GW approved. That's a 70:1 ratio. Bring-your-own-grid creates a $5.2B speed arbitrage over 36 months.
Unitree shipped 10,000 robots at $16K each. 10x cheaper than Boston Dynamics. $145B TAM by 2030. China controls the rare earth supply chain. The West has no answer.