https://investments.chiayong.com/ Quantitative research on AI: macro, fundamental, and options/volatility analysis across the AI capital cycle. en Thu, 18 Jun 2026 09:37:03 GMT https://investments.chiayong.com/ai-buildout/economics-2026-06-18/ https://investments.chiayong.com/ai-buildout/economics-2026-06-18/ Thu, 18 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Factory Math on Whether the AI Buildout Pencils. A bottom-up model of one 1GW GB200-class datacenter: ~$38-41B upfront capex and ~$7.1B/year to run; renting GPUs at $3.30/GPU-hour earns a 42.8% operating margin; the lab on top needs ~$31B/year of inference revenue per gigawatt at a 60% gross margin to justify the compute. The crux is the net revenue index — throughput per watt (H100 900k to B200 2.8M tok/sec/MW, 3.1x) rising faster than token price falls means revenue per gigawatt expands ~56% even as prices halve. All figures tie out to the author's sheet; the ARK $8.5B vs $7.14B annualized-cost divergence is flagged explicitly. NVDA AMD MSFT GOOGL META AMZN ORCL CRWV GEV VRT https://investments.chiayong.com/weeklies/market-update-week-24-2026-jun-8/ https://investments.chiayong.com/weeklies/market-update-week-24-2026-jun-8/ Sun, 14 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Breadth Came Back, But the Rally Still Depends on Calm Rates. Week #24 market update: SPY rose 0.6%, QQQ rose 2.3%, IWM rose 4.0%, semiconductors surged, global ex-US equities gained 3.4%, bitcoin rose 2.9%, and the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.48%. Breadth improved, but CPI and Michigan inflation expectations still argue against treating this as a clean Fed-cut setup. SPY QQQ DIA IWM RSP SMH SOXX ACWX EEM BTC ETH UUP GLD USO CPER TLT HYG https://investments.chiayong.com/power-law/topn-2026-06-07/ https://investments.chiayong.com/power-law/topn-2026-06-07/ Sun, 07 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research A Point-in-Time Backtest of Buying the Biggest Companies. A point-in-time backtest of buying the Top 3, Top 5, and Top 10 US companies by market cap, re-picked each year and equal-weighted. Over 30 years, Top 10 compounded at 12.44% vs 10.15% for SPY, while the more concentrated Top 3 returned less (12.15%) with a deeper 64% drawdown. SPY BRK-B NVDA MSFT AAPL AMZN GOOGL META XOM GE WMT https://investments.chiayong.com/weeklies/market-update-week-23-2026-jun-1/ https://investments.chiayong.com/weeklies/market-update-week-23-2026-jun-1/ Sat, 06 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research The Labor Market Stayed Firm, Yields Rose, and Crowded AI Momentum Cracked. Week #23 market update: SPY fell 2.5%, QQQ fell 4.5%, semiconductors broke, bitcoin dropped 16%, and the Treasury curve moved higher after a firm May jobs report. The rotation favored energy, healthcare, financials, and cash-flow quality over crowded AI duration. SPY QQQ DIA IWM SMH SOXX BTC ETH UUP GLD USO HYG TLT https://investments.chiayong.com/volatility/sizing-regime-2026-06-02/ https://investments.chiayong.com/volatility/sizing-regime-2026-06-02/ Tue, 02 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Left-Tail Survival and Position Sizing Under Regime Change. A data-grounded strategy framework using the reported QVR drawdown as a respectful case study: volatility did not fail, it repriced. VIX sits in the 24th percentile while AI-name IV ranks are pinned at 100 in backwardation, dispersion runs ~3x the index, and the vol risk premium is thinnest, even negative, in the highest-beta names. Pairs drawdown-first sizing math with live IV/term-structure/beta data to show why a signal can stay useful while the position size becomes wrong. VIX SPY QQQ NVDA SMH SOXX https://investments.chiayong.com/investment-memo/vertiv-vrt-2026-05-31/ https://investments.chiayong.com/investment-memo/vertiv-vrt-2026-05-31/ Sun, 31 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Equity Analyst Investment Memo. Vertiv is one of the cleanest public-market ways to underwrite AI data-center power, thermal management, and mission-critical infrastructure. Fundamentals are exceptional, but at roughly 50x FY2026 guided adjusted EPS midpoint, 9.0x sales, and 56x adjusted FCF, the base-case fair value is only around $340/share versus the recent $315.71 quote. VRT NVDA SMH ORCL AVGO AMD BE CRWV IREN CORZ APLD RIOT CLSK https://investments.chiayong.com/investment-memo/data-centres-leopold-13f-2026-05-31/ https://investments.chiayong.com/investment-memo/data-centres-leopold-13f-2026-05-31/ Sun, 31 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Why the Compute Trade Moved From Chips to Powered Clusters. A critical data-center memo on Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness 13F sequence and the post-quarter Nebius 13G: why the trade moved from chips to power, delivered clusters, goodput and AI-cloud unit economics. Compares CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN across live clusters, owned power, financing risk, customer quality and what is already priced in. CRWV NBIS IREN CORZ APLD BE SNDK NVDA https://investments.chiayong.com/ai-power/800vdc-datacenter-power-2026-05-27/ https://investments.chiayong.com/ai-power/800vdc-datacenter-power-2026-05-27/ Wed, 27 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research AI Racks Need Higher-Voltage Power. The Stock Question Is Who Gains Content per Megawatt.. A framework for the 800VDC datacenter power trade: why high-density AI racks force higher-voltage power, which public stocks benefit, which suppliers risk losing content, and why the edge is content per MW rather than generic AI-infrastructure exposure. VRT ETN SU.PA ABBN.SW 2308.TW IFX.DE TEL APH HUBB NVT LR.PA 010120.KS FLEX PWR WOLF https://investments.chiayong.com/weeklies/rate-relief-2026-05-27/ https://investments.chiayong.com/weeklies/rate-relief-2026-05-27/ Wed, 27 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Rates Fell and Semiconductor Stocks Rallied, but the Economic Risks Remain. A weekly market note on 26 May: 10Y yields fell from 4.56% to 4.49%, credit looked fine, and investors bought QQQ, SMH, and SOXX. But inflation expectations are still high, PMI data are softer, the Fed is not clearly ready to cut, and VIX rose on an up day. This is fragile, not cleanly bullish. SPY QQQ IWM RSP SMH SOXX TLT HYG LQD VIX https://investments.chiayong.com/capital-rotation/flows-2026-05-24/ https://investments.chiayong.com/capital-rotation/flows-2026-05-24/ Sun, 24 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Narrative Is a Flow Catalyst. AI Capex Is the Current Lab Experiment.. A framework for trading AI infrastructure capital rotation: hyperscaler capex creates successive bottlenecks across GPU compute, HBM, interconnect, optical, storage, servers and power. The edge is not saying 'AI bullish'; it is identifying flow/narrative mismatch, misclassified exposures and crowded baskets before rotation reverses. NVDA AMD MU ALAB CRDO MRVL LITE COHR CIEN STX WDC DELL PWR GEV https://investments.chiayong.com/ai-infra/bubble-tracker-2026-05-24/ https://investments.chiayong.com/ai-infra/bubble-tracker-2026-05-24/ Sun, 24 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Utilization, leverage, GPU pricing and shortage-risk indicators. A tracker framework for AI-infrastructure bubble risk: which indicators are observable today, which require proxies, how to monitor GPU pricing and utilization across Nvidia/AMD chips, and what prior bubbles imply for hyperscalers, neoclouds, memory, power and data-center capacity. NVDA AMD AMZN MSFT GOOGL META MU AVGO GEV VST ETN SMCI https://investments.chiayong.com/ai-stack/xai-anthropic-colossus-2026-05-09/ https://investments.chiayong.com/ai-stack/xai-anthropic-colossus-2026-05-09/ Sat, 09 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Colossus 1 Lease, Capacity Timing, and Reported Economics. A transaction note on the reported SpaceX/Anthropic Colossus 1 lease: Anthropic’s April capacity additions, the technical difference between training and inference on mixed-generation GPUs, and the reported lease economics ahead of a possible SpaceXAI IPO. NVDA AVGO GOOGL AMZN MSFT MU VRT ETN CEG GEV https://investments.chiayong.com/meta/valuation-ai-2026-05-05/ https://investments.chiayong.com/meta/valuation-ai-2026-05-05/ Tue, 05 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research The Ad Monopoly Funding a Superintelligence Land Grab. A deep dive on Meta's valuation, business structure and AI plays after Q1 2026: Family of Apps remains an elite ad cash cow, Reality Labs is still a loss-making option, and the $125-145B 2026 capex guide is the swing factor. Includes scenario valuation, AI revenue paths, infrastructure read-throughs and public references from Jefferies, Evercore, JPMorgan and Damodaran. META NVDA AVGO TSM MU VRT ETN GEV https://investments.chiayong.com/ai-stack/supply-chain-2026-05-03/ https://investments.chiayong.com/ai-stack/supply-chain-2026-05-03/ Sun, 03 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Where Value Accrues When Intelligence Gets Cheap. A six-layer AI-stack supply-chain deep dive inspired by Chamath/Social Capital: infrastructure, chips, data, models, execution and applications. The article maps bottlenecks across power, cooling, critical minerals, EUV, HBM, CoWoS, proprietary data, agent runtimes and physical actuation, with charts for layer defensibility, bottleneck severity and hyperscaler capex. NVDA AVGO TSM ASML MU GOOG MSFT AMZN GEV ETN VRT PLTR TSLA https://investments.chiayong.com/weeklies/ai-semi-2026-04-28/ https://investments.chiayong.com/weeklies/ai-semi-2026-04-28/ Tue, 28 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Compute Demand Is Accelerating Again. Google may commit up to $40B to Anthropic and gigawatts of TPU capacity, TPU 8 splits training and inference, DeepSeek V4 pushes model prices down, and NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra pushes token costs down. The market read: cheaper intelligence pressures weak AI software margins, but expands token volume and keeps semis, memory, networking and power infrastructure bid. Includes this week's chip stock price action and TPU 8 vs NVIDIA comparison. NVDA AVGO AMD ARM MU TSM GOOG TSLA https://investments.chiayong.com/terminal-value/2026-04-23/ https://investments.chiayong.com/terminal-value/2026-04-23/ Thu, 23 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research If an LLM Can Rebuild Your Product in a Weekend, Your Moat Isn't a Moat. 60–80% of tech equity value sits in terminal value, the assumption that moats compound. AI breaks that assumption for software first. 2025 inning: long silicon (AVGO, SKH), short SaaS (Duolingo −67%, Adobe −25%). What survives, what dies, and what it means for growth equity, private credit, and $300–500B/yr AI capex. XLK IGV AVGO ADBE https://investments.chiayong.com/cpu-shortage/amdahl-2026-04-18/ https://investments.chiayong.com/cpu-shortage/amdahl-2026-04-18/ Sat, 18 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Why Your Blackwell Cluster Sits 80% Idle. And Who Captures the Gap.. GPU utilization drops under 20% in agent loops. The other 80% is CPU orchestration — tool processing accounts for up to 90.6% of total latency (Raj et al., arXiv:2511.00739). Amdahl’s Law applied to AI capex: throwing more Blackwells at agent workflows yields almost nothing. NVIDIA shipping Vera as standalone CPU confirms the rerating. AMD, TSM still highest conviction; NVDA gets a hidden CPU growth pillar. AMD NVDA TSM ARM https://investments.chiayong.com/cpu-shortage/2026-04-16/ https://investments.chiayong.com/cpu-shortage/2026-04-16/ Thu, 16 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Agentic AI Flips the Ratio. Intel Hikes Prices 30%. AMD Takes Share.. Server CPU orders up 50% YoY. Intel at 95% utilization, hiking prices 30%. CPU:GPU ratio shifting from 1:12 to 1:4 as agentic AI demands 4x more CPU cores. AMD taking server share (Intel 65% → 50%). Nvidia and Arm both entering CPU market confirms structural shift. AMD INTC TSM ARM https://investments.chiayong.com/samsung/2026-04-15/ https://investments.chiayong.com/samsung/2026-04-15/ Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research The DRAM Supercycle. SOCAMM Demand. The HBM4 Redemption.. Samsung is printing ₩57T/quarter in memory OP (8x YoY). Three structural forces extend the DRAM cycle: AI inference DDR5 demand, NVIDIA SOCAMM/LPDDR5X pull (13x jump GB200→VR300), and HBM4 redemption after passing NVIDIA qual. At 2.2x annualized OP, the Korea discount is extreme. 005930.KS SSNLF https://investments.chiayong.com/xli/2026-04-14/ https://investments.chiayong.com/xli/2026-04-14/ Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Defense. Infrastructure. Electrification. The Real Economy ETF.. XLI is a concentrated bet on three multi-year spending cycles: defense rearmament post-Hormuz, $2T+ infrastructure legislation entering peak disbursement, and AI-driven electrification. At 27x forward P/E it's not cheap, but the structural tailwinds justify scaling in via cash-secured puts. XLI CAT GE RTX GEV ETN https://investments.chiayong.com/tesla/2026-04-07/ https://investments.chiayong.com/tesla/2026-04-07/ Tue, 07 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research The Convergence Machine. Robotics, Autonomy, SpaceX.. Tesla is priced as a declining EV company. The market ignores autonomy (robotaxi live in Austin, Cybercab production started), robotics (Optimus Gen 3 summer 2026), and the SpaceX $1.75T IPO catalyst that could force a $3T+ merger. Sum-of-parts: $285B bear to $1.5T+ bull. TSLA https://investments.chiayong.com/pltr/singularity/ https://investments.chiayong.com/pltr/singularity/ Tue, 07 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Architecting the Agentic Economy. The End of Legacy SaaS.. Palantir's Ontology creates infinite switching costs. AIP Bootcamps convert at 75% in 5 days. Maven is now a Program of Record. But at 60-80x revenue, you're paying for perfection. Best played as a put seller. PLTR https://investments.chiayong.com/options/selling-guide/ https://investments.chiayong.com/options/selling-guide/ Mon, 23 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research 76.5% Expire Worthless. Be the House.. 76.5% of options expire worthless. Option sellers collect premium like an insurance company. Time decay, far OTM strikes, delta under 20. The complete framework for selling options on NVDA, SPY, GOOG, TSLA. NVDA SPY GOOG TSLA https://investments.chiayong.com/empire-cycles/2026-03-19/ https://investments.chiayong.com/empire-cycles/2026-03-19/ Thu, 19 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Positioning Your Portfolio Through Dalio's Big Cycle. Empires follow a 250-year cycle. The US scores 6.8/10 on Dalio's framework. Same as Britain circa 1910. Gold outperforms during every empire transition. 15-20% gold allocation is the minimum for a multipolar world. Gold S&P 500 Treasuries Oil https://investments.chiayong.com/crisis-hedging/2026-03-17/ https://investments.chiayong.com/crisis-hedging/2026-03-17/ Tue, 17 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Match the Hedge to the Inflation Regime. Three post-pandemic crises prove that the right hedge depends on whether the shock is inflationary or deflationary. SVB favored Treasuries. Tariffs favored gold. Iran favors the dollar. Match your hedge to the regime or get burned. Gold Treasuries USD https://investments.chiayong.com/nvidia/gtc-2026/ https://investments.chiayong.com/nvidia/gtc-2026/ Tue, 17 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Vera Rubin. $1T Demand Pipeline. The Agent OS.. Jensen's GTC 2026 keynote. Vera Rubin: 7 chips, 3.6 exaflops, 350x token throughput. Groq LPU integration. $1T+ demand pipeline. SemiAnalysis deep dive on AFD, Samsung fab arbitrage, and CPO roadmap. NVDA https://investments.chiayong.com/nvidia/iran-war-supply-chain/ https://investments.chiayong.com/nvidia/iran-war-supply-chain/ Tue, 17 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research Helium Shortages, Oil Shock, NVIDIA Exposure. Qatar's Ras Laffan offline. 30% of global helium gone. Bromine disrupted. What it means for chip fabs and how to trade it with puts. NVDA https://investments.chiayong.com/nvidia/2026-03-14/ https://investments.chiayong.com/nvidia/2026-03-14/ Sat, 14 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research 92% GPU Share. $20B Groq Deal. The Inference Pivot.. NVIDIA's $20B Groq buy marks the training-to-inference pivot. 92% AI training share, 18-year CUDA moat. $255B inference market by 2030. NVDA https://investments.chiayong.com/google/2026-03-14/ https://investments.chiayong.com/google/2026-03-14/ Sat, 14 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research 29% Discount. TPU Sovereignty. $3B/yr Silicon Edge.. Google trades 29% below peers. They invented transformers. TPUs save $3B/yr. GCP growing 44% CAGR. Cash-secured puts yield 40% annualized. GOOGL https://investments.chiayong.com/asml/2026-03-14/ https://investments.chiayong.com/asml/2026-03-14/ Sat, 14 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research 100% EUV Monopoly. The AI Compute Toll Booth.. ASML owns 100% of EUV lithography. Every advanced chip runs through their machines. AI supercycle drives demand. High-NA EUV is next. ASML https://investments.chiayong.com/hbm/2026-03-14/ https://investments.chiayong.com/hbm/2026-03-14/ Sat, 14 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research The Hidden AI Choke Point: Memory Is the New Compute. AI's real bottleneck isn't compute. It's memory. Three companies control all HBM supply. $4B market growing to $91B by 2030 at 56% CAGR. 118% utilization. Seller's market. MU is the play. MU SK Hynix Samsung https://investments.chiayong.com/ai-power/2026-03-14/ https://investments.chiayong.com/ai-power/2026-03-14/ Sat, 14 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research The Grid Bottleneck: Why AI Labs Are Abandoning Grid Power. GPUs aren't the bottleneck. Power is. ERCOT has 78 GW requested, 1.1 GW approved. That's a 70:1 ratio. Bring-your-own-grid creates a $5.2B speed arbitrage over 36 months. GEV HWM BE CAT https://investments.chiayong.com/robotics/2026-03-14/ https://investments.chiayong.com/robotics/2026-03-14/ Sat, 14 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT YK Research The $16,000 Robot: China's Structural Advantage in Physical AI. Unitree shipped 10,000 robots at $16K each. 10x cheaper than Boston Dynamics. $145B TAM by 2030. China controls the rare earth supply chain. The West has no answer. Humanoid Robotics